Wednesday, June 22, 2011

More Wisdom from the CBO

I stumbled across this, which led me to this, which in turn led me to this.  Long story short, our current policies are leading us to doom and ruin in the form of tremendous deficit spending, but if we make a sharp turn towards responsible spending, the disaster won't happen.  The last link is to a variety of deficit reducing suggestions that the CBO brainstormed, and although it's like 250 pages, it's worth taking a look at some of the suggestions.  It should be noted that it would be a lot easier to reduce the deficit through increased taxation, and it seems like the CBO has sensible suggestions.  A few highlights:


-Privatizing the Tennessee Valley Authorities electrical utilities functions would save $3.6 billion between 2012 and 2021 (this is the time frame for all the savings that I'll list).


-Reducing the size of the strategic oil reserve from 727 million barrels to 650 million will save $6.9 billion.  Based on historical data, we don't actually need to have that much oil on hand, the face that we keep finding oil reservoirs all over the world (not just the Middle East) means that the market is less volatile than in the seventies when the SOR was implemented, and the volume of oil that's bought and sold world wide is such that even using the entirety of the SOR won't do much to change prices (it's stated purpose).  


-Eliminating the Conservation Stewardship Program saves $10.5 billion.  The CBO hints that this program is mostly pork for industrial farms.  


-Reducing the premium subsidy in the Crop Insurance Program from 60 percent to 50 percent saves $11.8 billion.  


-Reducing the share of farmer's acreage eligible for USDA payment by 20 percentage points saves $9.5 billion.  


-Lowering loan limits for Freddie Mac and Fannie May saves $3.5 billion, increasing guarantee fees saves $26.5 billion.  Both of these things will give private corporations that do the same thing room to breath by reducing competition with a government-sponsored entity.  


-Adding a public plan to Obamacare health insurance exchanges saves $26.7 billion while increasing revenue by $61.2 billion.  


-Limiting medical malpractice torts saves $49.5 billion and adds $12.9 billion in revenue.  CBO specifically recommends capping noneconomic damages at $250,000, capping punitive damages at $500,000 or twice the economic damages (whichever is greater), the statute of limitations for malpractice being one year for adults and three for children, a fair-share rule in which each of the negligent parties pays for his percentage of the negligence (as opposed to joint-and-several liability, in which all parties are equally culpable, which means that one doctor  can be held as financially responsible as his partner for his partner's negligence, even if the negligence wasn't the result of institutional practices), and permission to introduce other sources of income as evidence (life or health insurance payments that mitigate the economic burden of the negligence).  


-Raising the age of eligibility for Medicare to 67 saves $124.8 billion.  


-Requiring drug manufacturers to pay a minimum rebate for drugs covered under part D of medicare (which apparently was a previous requirement that was removed when the drugs were reclassified) saves $112 billion.  


On the revenue side of the house (for 2012-2021)


-Raise the income tax by one percent for the top three quintiles (individuals earning more than $83,000 annually and couples earning more than $140,000) increases revenue by $139 billion.  If you raise it for just the top two quintiles (individuals earning more than $174,000 and couples earning more than $212,000) revenue increases by $115 billion.  


-Raising capital gains tax by two percent adds $48.5 billion.


-Gradually eliminating mortgage interest deduction adds $214 billion.


-Ending deductions for state and local taxes adds $862 billion.  


-Limiting the tax benefit for itemized deductions to 15 percent adds $1.18 trillion.  


-Including investment income from insurance and annuities (apparently some insurance policies let you invest part of your payment, which pays dividends) adds $259.5 billion.  


-Taxing social security and railroad pensions the same way defined benefits pensions are taxed adds $438.4 billion.  


-Increasing corporate income tax rates by one percent adds $100 billion.  


-End subsidies for exploration and development costs for extractive industries (mining) saves $10 billion.  


-Adding a value added tax (which all the other OECD countries have) increases revenues by $2.5 trillion if the tax is relatively all-inclusive or $1.39 trillion if its scope is narrower.  


-Increasing the excise tax on motor fuel adds $291 billion.  


-Accelerating and modifying the excise tax on high-premium health insurance adds $309.5 billion.  


-Repealing the individual mandate in Obamacare adds $282 billion.  


-Reinstating the superfund taxes adds $19.4 billion.  


-Taxing greenhouse emission increases revenue by $1. 2 trillion.  The rest of the developed world has already implemented some version of this system.  


On a humorous side note, the Bush tax cuts were officially called "The Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act" and the extension of the Bush tax cuts were "The Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act."  If they are made permanent, they will increase the deficit by $3.242 trillion dollars between 2012 and 2021.  


Some of the ideas that the CBO came up with sound like terrible ideas that will damage our long-term economic prospects, but there's also quite a few good ideas in there.  I recommend nibbling at their report a little bit at a time.  There also seems like there's close to $1 trillion (or more, I didn't actually add it up) to be saved if retired government employees and military personnel are required to share a large portion of their healthcare costs, which seems like a reasonable request given the fact that they pay basically much less than the average civilian.  

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